[FRIAM] the end of the pandemic
Steven A Smith
sasmyth at swcp.com
Mon May 11 16:13:25 EDT 2020
Gary -
I'd find it interesting and informative if not directly actionable to
know more about how things are there in Ecuador.
I'm surprised that you are as far from groceries as 50 miles? I was
thinking you were living closer to a major city (Quito?) but
nevertheless semi-rural? Are there no smaller markets open closer to
you, or do you prefer to shop (only) at the larger markets (limiting
yourself to 1 trip)? What are the infection rates there and do you
have a feeling for where the biggest risks are for the population?
I track a few "instagrammer types" who were traveling in self-contained
van/camper setups around the world when this hit. One has returned
from their trek from Utah down to Tierra del Fuego (and back), finally
giving up and returning from the Uraguayan border of Argentina by
airline, leaving their van in storage there. The other couple had
already bought a small piece of land and parked their converted
short-bus there permanently when this hit and have been reporting nearly
daily as they cope with the shutdowns there. Others were in Morocco
(now one in Canada and the others in Croatia and another back in the
UK). Each one has their own idiosyncratic view of the whole
experience, but the bottom line I'm sensing is that those countries (and
the ones some had to travel through) are MUCH more draconian in their
rules than the US is, for better or worse.
Maybe this pandemic is an illusion created and maintained by "the
liberal elite", but if it is their reach is a great deal more expansive
than I could have imagined.
My 22 year old nephew in Tucson was just released from his (self)
quarantine. His earliest symptoms came on at the end of March but he
was unable to get a doctor's appointment or a (subsequent) test, just
the phone recommendations to "stay home to avoid infecting anyone) and
some general information about what symptoms to treat as worthy of an
emergency hospital visit. He didn't have overtly corona-exclusive
symptoms until about 2 weeks in, when his smell and taste were severely
compromised. He is still having mild fatigue and shortness of breath,
but nothing that can't be attributed to being (ever-more) sedentary for
6 weeks. He's following social-distance and masking when leaving home,
but the doctors (on the phone) gave him the greenlight with those
restrictions. It is a mildly hypochondriac family, and I know he gets
extra points/dispensation for having been infected, but it does sound
like he probably was. He says the docs are not offering antigen
testing, ambiguously because A) they don't have access; or B) they don't
think it should change his future behaviour.
Last night, I zoomed with that whole branch of my family (my mother, my
only sister, her husband and their 3 adult children), all excepting the
nephew are hard-core Fox-News watching Trump-train riders. One niece
is a nurse in Riverside CA, living with a Doctor.. both treating COVID19
patients daily, though their hospital is mid-sized and has not been
overwhelmed, specializing in taking the overflow from the smaller
surrounding towns and running a suite of triage tents in the parking
lot. There was no discussion of politics including NO rattling on
(like they did 6 weeks ago) about the "Democrat Hoax".
My sister is in a k-8 Montessori school and half of the staff believes
they do not need masks or PPE (now that they are back) but my sister
(with her son's experience) is not giving over to that idea wears a
mask, sanitizes, and keeps her distance as best she can. She is worried
that if the students return (today) to that environment, that they are
just asking to be another source of a fresh cluster of infections. The
timing is such that whoever is (maybe) being exposed today, should be
recovering (if they survive) from this fresh burst of infection about
the time Dave thinks the pandemic (aka hysteria) will subside. It is a
small school (a few hundred staff/teachers/students) and maybe nobody in
that pool is currently infected, and maybe they will all avoid becoming
infected during that period.
They also acknowledged (in January) that "Climate Change is real, and
going to cause real problems for real people, like US!", when they had
been ardent (if polite) deniers for at least the 20 years I have put
down my own denial/cynicism on the topic. I have no idea who they are
going to vote for in November... maybe they will just stay home (since
AZ is not likely to eagerly embrace vote-by-mail like NM already has
declared for).
ramble,
- Steve
On 5/11/20 11:13 AM, Gary Schiltz wrote:
> I definitely will try to make it to some FRIAM Zooms. Unfortunately,
> Friday is the one day a week I am permitted to go out on the roads
> with my car here in Ecuador due to the pandemic pandemonium, and I
> have to drive to get to the only supermarket that is open within 50
> miles, and it closes at 1:00 pm.
>
> On Mon, May 11, 2020 at 11:51 AM <thompnickson2 at gmail.com
> <mailto:thompnickson2 at gmail.com>> wrote:
>
> Gary,
>
>
>
> If you join the FRIAM ZOOM … perhaps come a bit late … you will
> get a chance to meet Glen. NOTHIN’ he says ain’t for nothin’. It
> starts at 9 am Mountain; you should get an invite automatically,
> sometime thursday. If not, let me know.
>
>
>
> Nick
>
>
>
>
>
> Nicholas Thompson
>
> Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology
>
> Clark University
>
> ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com <mailto:ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com>
>
> https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/
>
>
>
>
>
> *From:* Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com
> <mailto:friam-bounces at redfish.com>> *On Behalf Of *Gary Schiltz
> *Sent:* Monday, May 11, 2020 10:09 AM
> *To:* The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group
> <friam at redfish.com <mailto:friam at redfish.com>>
> *Subject:* Re: [FRIAM] the end of the pandemic
>
>
>
> I'm supposed to be a geek, but I don't understand "Tempus Dictum's
> Discord" - sounds like some mathematical proof from the ancient
> Greeks. Google search shows a company called Tempus Dictum, and
> there appears to be some software called Discord, either or both
> of which may or may not be associated with Glen and reminders. I
> feel so behind times and technologically challenged. :-).
> Channeling Nick, I supposer. [no offense intended, Nick]
>
>
>
> On Mon, May 11, 2020 at 10:28 AM uǝlƃ ☣ <gepropella at gmail.com
> <mailto:gepropella at gmail.com>> wrote:
>
> Among the many reasons email is obsolete is the ability of
> other tools to "pin" a post so that it's easily found later
> on. In principle, the Mailman list page could do this. But
> it's comparatively awkward. Piling more into the footer can
> play the same role, but since few posters clean up their posts
> (e.g. deleting the repeated footer), such piling makes sifting
> through contributions awkward, as well.
>
> Anyway, I'd like to "pin" this post somewhere. I think it's
> fantastic to make such explicit predictions, similar to those
> experiment sites where you have to submit your design for
> review, then conduct the experiment, then submit your results:
>
> https://blogs.plos.org/everyone/2020/04/06/filling-in-the-scientific-record-the-importance-of-negative-and-null-results/
>
> And it follows nicely with the (painfully slow) admission that
> knowledge comes through failure, not success:
> https://blogs.plos.org/everyone/2020/04/06/filling-in-the-scientific-record-the-importance-of-negative-and-null-results/
>
> For now, I'll simply install a reminder in Tempus Dictum's
> Discord to come back and look at Dave's prediction in late June.
>
> On 5/11/20 7:42 AM, Prof David West wrote:
> > The COVID-19 pandemic will end, at least in the US, by
> mid-June, 2020.
> >
> > This assertion is premised on making a distinction between
> the biological and the perceptual.
> >
> > The virus is not going away, a vaccine may or may not be
> found and made widely available, and treatments that reduce
> severity and death rate may or may not be soon at hand. Hot
> spots will continue to flare. Model-based prognostications
> will be confirmed. And none of this will matter.
> >
> > A radical shift in perception from "we're all going to die"
> to "I have next to zero chance of severe illness or death" is
> reaching a tipping point and a catastrophic (mathematical
> sense of the word) change from one to the other is imminent.
> >
> > "Science" will quickly confirm (justify / rationalize) this
> shift — after all, my individual risk is 150,000 /
> 300,000,000 or "pretty damned small."
> >
> > Politicians will quickly cave to this new perceptual reality
> and socio-economic restrictions will collapse.
> >
> > The percentage of the population that wear masks (just one
> example of a behavioral phenomenon) will roughly equal the
> number that fastidiously fasten their seat belts; but this and
> similar behaviors will mitigate the the infection/death rate.
> >
> > Covid will be PERCEIVED to be no worse than the flu, the
> death rate will become "acceptable," and the current media
> "hysteria" will fade away.
> >
> > There will be a segment of the populace — mostly the
> affluent elderly and individuals who have acquired
> money/influence/notoriety the past few months — who will argue
> against these changes but their objections will be quickly
> countered with, "why should I suffer all kinds of consequences
> — ones you do not share — to cater to your fears or your ego?"
> >
> > None of the above should be interpreted as anything except a
> simple observation / prediction.
>
>
> --
> ☣ uǝlƃ
>
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